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Smartphone vs. Cradle: How Mobile Phones and Social Media Have Changed Birth Rates—Globally and in Kazakhstan
Before the smartphone era, there was a gradual decline in fertility in the 20th century due to "classic" reasons (urbanization, education, contraception).
2007–2012 – a sharp turnaround immediately after the release of the iPhone: research by the NBER and the University of Cincinnati links this to a 3–8% drop in the birth rate among young people in the US.
After 2010–2012, the era of social media – Instagram and algorithmic feeds – exacerbate the trend; the graph shows that the decline in different countries (USA/UK – 2007, France/Poland – 2009, Mexico/Indonesia – 2012, Africa – 2013–2015) occurs with the same delay after the advent of smartphones, rather than simultaneously.
The mechanism is a diagram with hypotheses: less face-to-face communication → fewer couples → later marriage → lower fertility.
Kazakhstan is a special case: the TFR increased from 2.62 (2012) to a peak of 3.13 (2020), and then declined to 2.96 (2023), in sync with the saturation of the internet (92% of the population) and social media (14 million users).
A section on how smartphones aren't the only reason, plus a list of sources.
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📅 01.09.2026
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