If a year ago someone had said that smartphones would become more expensive due to the fact that data centers had bought up all the RAM on the planet, they would have laughed at him. And now this is the main plot of the season.
Memory ate the market
Let's start with the unpleasant. According to IDC, in 2026, global smartphone sales will fall by 13.9% to 1.09 billion units. This is the strongest drop in the history of the industry. The reason is not that people have fallen out of love with phones, but because of the memory shortage: the AI boom has sucked out the production of DRAM and NAND, and memory modules have become so expensive that manufacturers have had to raise their price tags.
Result: the average price of a smartphone in the world reaches a record $550 - this is a hundred dollars more than in 2025. The budget segment is suffering the most, and the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe have sank the most. Restoration is expected no earlier than 2028.
The practical conclusion is simple: if your phone works, don’t rush to change it. The replacement cycle has already stretched to 3-4 years, and this is probably normal.
Folding: the year everything changes
Against the backdrop of a general decline, foldable smartphones are growing by 30% per year. And it’s clear why - in September 2026, Apple finally shows its first folding iPhone (according to rumors, production problems have already been resolved, the schedule has not moved).
The price tag is expected to be about $2,400 - three times more expensive than a regular flagship. But IDC predicts that in the first year Apple will take more than 22% of the folding market in units and a third in money. Apple is rarely the first, but it almost always turns a niche into the mainstream.
Meanwhile, Samsung has already rolled out the three-section Galaxy Z TriFold, Huawei is doubling the supply of its “books”. Folding ones turn from an attraction into a separate premium class.
Batteries: the quiet revolution that everyone missed
While everyone was arguing about AI, a real breakthrough happened - silicon-carbon batteries. A capacity of 7000–8000 mAh in a 7 mm thick case is no longer a fantasy: Chinese brands have put this on the assembly line, and most of the top “long-lasting” models of 2026 are already using this chemistry.
Honestly? For an ordinary user, two days without a power outlet is a much more tangible upgrade than another chatbot in the notification shade.
Glasses that want to become a phone
The most interesting story is outside of smartphones. Meta Ray-Ban Display for $799 sold out so much that the company froze the launch in Europe and Canada: there is not enough product for American orders. Waiting lists stretch for months, and EssilorLuxottica reported an increase in sales of smart glasses by more than 200%.
A display in a lens, a bracelet for gestures, navigation, a teleprompter - the device is gradually taking away small tasks from the phone. Samsung and Lenovo are already preparing their answers.
Where is everything going?
Three trends, in short:
Expensive, but longer. Devices will become more premium, and people will buy them less often. The market for used and refurbished gadgets will flourish against this background.
Form factor instead of gigahertz. I'm tired of arguing about processors - it's more interesting how the device folds, bends and how long it lasts.
The screen leaves the palm of your hand. Glasses, bracelets, pendants with AI - the phone will not die, but it will cease to be the only entry point. It is increasingly looking like a hub in your pocket that simply distributes calculations to other devices.
It definitely won't be boring.
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